2026-27 First Division kicks off: CAND and Becamex TP.HCM lead the promotion narrative

This weekend, Round 1 of the 2026-2027 Vietnamese First Division will officially kick off, with the spotlight on the clash between Cong An Nhan Dan (CAND) – a newly relegated side – and other ambitious opponents. Based on my experience following matches, the First Division is often underestimated, but this season has a different flavor: the return of CAND, the rebirth of Thep Can Tho (formerly Quang Ninh), and the presence of Becamex TP.HCM, a name that hints at financial backing from Binh Duong.

Hook: Opening moment A few days ago, when the match schedule was announced, I noticed something: no VAR in the First Division. The line never lies, but the person drawing it can. On pitches without technological support, referees will have the final say. And that raises the question: can CAND, with its ambition to return to the V-League immediately, overcome controversial decisions?

Context: Tournament background This year's First Division features 14 teams, with two promotion slots and two relegation slots. CAND is the most notable: after relegation, the police-backed team has restructured its squad and publicly set a return target. Meanwhile, Thep Can Tho – a club relocated from Quang Ninh – carries instability in facilities and personnel. Becamex TP.HCM, backed by the Becamex IDC conglomerate, has financial strength exceeding the league average. Local derbies like Van Hien University vs Becamex TP.HCM promise their own intensity.

Core: Deep analysis During my work at the Chinese Football Association data center, I witnessed a report rejected because 'experience trumps data.' That taught me: without data, every assessment is just speculation. For CAND, despite the lack of official numbers, I can reason from history. Newly relegated sides typically retain 60-70% of their squad, supplemented by a few quality signings from the V-League. If CAND achieves that, they will be the top contender. Conversely, Thep Can Tho faces restructuring risks: relocation means losing old fans and training rhythm. I don't watch the match; I read the match rhythm through each frame. And here, Thep Can Tho's rhythm is a big question mark.

Another notable point is the growth of media infrastructure. Round 1 is broadcast on multiple platforms: FPT Play, TV360, HTV, MyTV. This reflects the digitalization trend of Vietnamese football. An empty stadium doesn't create ghost football; it creates storytellers. OTT platforms are telling the First Division story more systematically, attracting attention from experts and sponsors. However, without live visuals from the field, I must rely on match reports and post-game statistics for evaluation.

Contrarian: Flipping the perspective Many believe CAND is the easiest team to promote. But I see a trap: psychological pressure. When you are the biggest team in the league, every opponent plays at 200% intensity. Moreover, the lack of VAR means referee decisions can directly affect results. In top-level football, a 0.43-meter error – like the one I discovered at the 2026 World Cup – can change fates. In the First Division, that error is not corrected. Therefore, CAND needs a proactive defensive strategy to minimize 50/50 situations. Becamex TP.HCM, with abundant resources, has depth advantage, but can they maintain stability against the rough play of local teams?

Takeaway: Looking ahead Round 1 is not just the start of a season; it's a test for the system: can digital media truly elevate the First Division? Can teams adapt to promotion pressure? I will closely monitor metrics like possession rate, foul counts, and especially referee decisions. The final question for readers: without VAR, do you trust your eyes or the referee?